CLE Cavaliers - PHI 76ers

The key storylines in this game really come down to two things: Cleveland’s frontcourt injury problems, and Philadelphia’s form and matchup advantages.

Let’s start with Cleveland. The biggest headache is the frontcourt injuries: starting center Jarrett Allen is questionable due to right patellar tendinopathy, while Tomlin and Diop are ruled out. Allen averaged 15.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 63.8% shooting last regular season. If he doesn’t play, Mobley will have to slide to center, leaving Bryant as the only backup big, which would make the rotation very uncomfortable. On top of that, Cleveland’s new starting lineup of Harden, Mitchell, and Watson has only played two preseason games together. Watson shot 8-of-22 from the field and 2-of-12 from three, while Mitchell shot 2-of-11 from three. Cleveland’s head coach also publicly called out the rebounding problem during the preseason.

Now look at Philadelphia. In their season opener on the road, they beat the defending champion Knicks 106-100, recording 28 assists with only 10 turnovers and scoring 24 fast-break points. Embiid had 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks; when defending Brunson’s pick-and-roll, he could both drop back and switch, which matches up well against Cleveland’s two guards. Philadelphia shot 11-of-40 from three, with James and Edgecombe combining to go 0-of-6 and Maxey 2-of-9, so there is clearly room for positive regression there.

The style matchup also fits Philadelphia. Last season Cleveland averaged nearly 40 three-point attempts per game, but allowed opponents to make 14.2 threes per game on 37.2% shooting, both bottom-five in the league. They generate a lot of long rebounds, and Harden is slow getting back in transition, which plays right into Philadelphia’s transition offense and the off-ball movement of Simmons and Pope. Cleveland’s wing defense relies only on Watson, and he would have to deal with Maxey, Brown, and James at the same time; one of Harden and Mitchell must defend, and Philadelphia can keep attacking mismatches after switching. Add in the fact that the 76ers played with maximum defensive intensity in their opener and won, and now back at home they can relax and close out the game. I think this will be a high-scoring, back-and-forth shootout.