The Senators had a tough battle against the Panthers but eventually came away with a convincing 5-1 victory. It was a physical game with plenty of penalties, largely due to the Brady Tkachuk factor. As expected, he was heavily booed by the crowd and responded with several aggressive bodychecks. Ottawa played at a high tempo and completely outmatched Florida's defense. However, the Sens are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and Ersson has been confirmed as the starting goaltender. While Ullmark has been outstanding this season before getting injured yesterday, Ersson has been nowhere near that level.
The Sharks have a favorable opportunity to pick up a win here. I initially considered backing them on the moneyline at plus money, but then I noticed that the Senators are the only team yet to win a game in regulation. All their victories have come in overtime, which made me reconsider that angle. San Jose has an interesting roster, but the team remains inconsistent and struggles to build momentum. I'm not particularly keen on the Over 6.5 either, as three of their ten games finished tied at 3-3 after regulation. Alternatively, the Over 6.5 including overtime is available at around 1.90.
With Ottawa playing on back-to-back nights and Ersson between the pipes, the goaltending matchup is a concern. The Sharks play with plenty of speed, so I expect a high-tempo game with chances at both ends. I'll back the Over at a reasonable price.
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