Borussia Monchengladbach - Hoffenheim    (lost)

Gladbach vs Hoffenheim never lacks off-field stories. On one side is a traditional club with a deep fan culture; on the other is a team that rose under Dietmar Hopp’s long-term investment. These two different paths of growth have been debated in German football circles for years. In 2020, when the two sides met at Borussia-Park, insulting banners aimed at Hopp in the Gladbach stands even caused the match to be briefly interrupted.

Let’s start with Gladbach. Five defeats from five games, zero points, bottom of the table and 18 goals conceded is certainly ugly, but the performances have already shown signs of change. This season Gladbach’s expected goals against per game had reached 3.03, yet in Blessin’s first match in charge — away to a strong home side in Köln — they still lost, but that number dropped to 1.32, while Gladbach’s own expected goals were 1.17. Their overall competitiveness has improved significantly. Blessin has also had an extra week to continue working on the team, so they should be better prepared.

Hoffenheim’s form is also far below expectations this season, with six defeats in seven games. On Thursday they lost 2-3 at home to Beşiktaş in the Europa League, and both goals conceded in the 72nd and 79th minutes came from quick counterattacks. After pushing forward, they failed to protect the space behind. The schedule and personnel situation make it even harder for Hoffenheim to fix this problem. They played in Europe on Thursday and now travel away on Sunday, leaving limited time for recovery and specific training. At the same time, Bernardo is suspended and Haidari remains injured, so the back line needs to be reshuffled again. With the defence already unstable, reduced preparation time and changes at the back further increase the uncertainty during the match. By contrast, Gladbach have had a full week to prepare.

With the data continuing to give Hoffenheim room, I lean towards Gladbach defending their home ground and earning their first point of the season.