Go Ahead Eagles-Telstar    (lost)

Go Ahead Eagles are now six league games without a win — four draws and two defeats. Last round they took the lead away from home but conceded four in the second half and lost 1-4 to Zwolle. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in all nine league rounds and currently sit ninth. The record looks ugly, but I’m still backing Go Ahead Eagles to bounce back at home.

In the defeat to Zwolle, Go Ahead Eagles actually had the edge in expected goals, 2.7 to 1.8. Of course, conceding four goals while their xGA was under two does not mean the defence is fine — the 1-4 scoreline simply magnified the gap in performance between the two sides. More importantly, their home and away form should be separated. In four home games, Go Ahead Eagles have two wins and two draws, scoring 11 and conceding 6. At home they average 2.06 xG and 1.24 xGA, so their home dominance is still there.

Telstar are eight games without a win and have failed to score in each of their last three away games, with an average away xG of only 0.76 — their attacking weakness is backed by the underlying data. Their defensive numbers are misleading if you only look at the scoreline: they have conceded only 3 goals in four away games, which looks solid, but their average xGA is 2.48, meaning their defence is much worse than their record suggests. With the handicap now at a whole number, Go Ahead Eagles on a six-game winless run, and Telstar having lost none of their last six matches by more than one goal, the line is also two notches higher than last season’s meeting between the two sides, creating as much resistance as possible. I’m backing Go Ahead Eagles at home.